POLITICS – The final voting intentions for the presidential election were released this Friday evening. By law, polling stations have no right to publish new polls on Saturday, April 9, or on the day of the first round on Sunday. Therefore, the compiler we published is the final photo of the public before the election.
And what does it reveal? The difference between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron has never been smaller. So much so that it is wondered whether the order of arrival, which we believe we have established for weeks, will remain the same after the ballot box. The far-right candidate is only 2 points behind the presidential candidate; The difference between the two was 10 points a month ago.
Meanwhile, the two rivals are experiencing opposite dynamics. After the average approached 30%, the President lost more than three points (due to the McKinsey controversy, the end of the flag effect, and an under-explained program) 26.2%. That’s higher than 24% in 2017, but the trend isn’t good for someone who’s never left the top line of voting intentions.
For the leader of the National Rally, therefore, the situation is just the opposite. HORSE 24.2%, vice RN from Pas-de-Calais never ceases to increase; It has gained almost seven points since March and is now well above 21.4% 5 years ago.
Mélenchon 17%, Zemmour less than 9%
The dynamic behind the duo is positive for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Inside the campaign, the People’s League candidate also got the best score (17.4%). But the rebel proxy from Bouches-du-Rhône has 6.5 points to qualify for the second round. Is it lost for him? We’ll only know at 8pm on Sunday.
Éric Zemmour also wants to believe that it is not lost on him. But hope is almost nil for the far-right candidate currently placed below 10%. With 8.8%, the former journalist is largely left behind. For Valérie Pécresse pointing out the same observation 8%A far lower score than he had before his victory in the Republican convention.
For the other seven candidates, fluctuations have been minimal over the past few days, with Yannick Jadot still leading the way for “smaller candidates.” MEP still falls below the inevitable 5% mark (average 4.8%) however, the record for an ecologist in the presidential election remains in low water (5.3% in Noël Mamère, 2002). With 2.8%Communist Fabien Roussel, unlike Jean Lassalle, is in a downward trend. 2.8%In front of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (2.1%) and Anne Hidalgo (%2nd). Philippe Poutou and Nathalie Arthaud finished with 1% and 0.5% respectively.
survey compiler HuffPostHow does it work?
Every new voting intent survey for the presidential election is taken into account in our compiler. This then calculates the new average of each candidate’s scores in the most recently published polls. The newer the survey, the greater its weight on this average. Click here to download a list of all surveys used for this article. Note that only one survey per week is considered for daily rounding.
Twelve official candidates for the presidential election
The Constitutional Council approved the list of 12 candidates for the April 10 and 24 elections on Monday, March 7th. Therefore, the outgoing president has eleven opponents, four women and seven men.
Five for the first time (Yannick Jadot, Anne Hidalgo, Valérie Pécresse, Fabien Roussel, Éric Zemmour), two for the second time (Jean Lassalle and Emmanuel Macron), and five for the third time (Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Philippe Poutou).
Here is a brief biography of each.
See also HuffPost: Presidential Campaign Highlights