Is this the start of a seventh wave of coronavirus? Some indicators are warning. “There is a resumption of the epidemic and it is completely unexpected for the season” infection specialist confirmed last weekend Benjamin Davido, a Covid-19 reference at the Garches hospital in Hauts-de-Seine, interviewed by Franceinfo. Since the beginning of June, the number of positive cases has increased as well as the number of hospitalizations. These are the last
100,000 cases in July?
More than 25,000 new contaminations were recorded on 1 June. After 15 days, double. Last week’s average rose above 50,000 cases per day for the first time since May 2. 95,217 cases were detected in the last 24 hours, a 46% increase compared to last Tuesday.
If the curve continues to progress, the 100,000-day case threshold could be crossed at the start of the school holidays, in early July. For comparison, also compared to last year, there were fewer than 5,000 daily cases and the peak of the Delta wave would be reached during the month of July.
Increasing number of tests
In two weeks, the number of tests increased by 26%. About 1.3 million PCR and antigenic tests were validated between June 6 and June 12, the statistics department (Drees) noted in a press release. That’s three times less than at the end of March. Nearly ten million tests were conducted during the Christmas holidays.
In addition, thanks to the curve below, we see that all age groups, from the oldest to the youngest, are affected by this growth of the epidemic. Those under 50 were infected first, then the rate of positivity increased in those over 60.
Increase in hospitalizations
The consequences of this increase in cases are still limited for hospitals, according to Public Health France data. But hospitalizations are increasing: +14% in the last two weeks. Three weeks ago there was an average of less than 400 admissions per day, today it’s almost 600. The latest peak stretches back to April with more than 25,000 hospitalizations, of which just under 850 are in intensive care.
Two explanations: first there is a delay between contamination and the development of a severe form of the disease, and then the effectiveness of the vaccine against severe forms of Covid-19. The number of intensive care admissions also remains constant.
The death toll is not increasing either. At the end of last week, 40 to 50 deaths from Covid-19 were recorded each day. In late April and early May, there were more than a hundred deaths every day.
How to explain this increase?
If the virus is spreading at high speed again, it is because of various variants of Omicron: BA.4, BA.5 and BA2.12.1. “The epidemic curve in France is exponential” franceinfo notes Antoine Flahaultepidemiologist and director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Geneva Medical School. “Even though we have passed the cold season period, with the new trend variants that are more contagious, the epidemic finds fresh blood at rates from 10% to 15%” analysis for infection expert Benjamin Davido.
According to Guillaume Rozier, fFounder of Covid Tracker site, from twitter : “We’re seeing a similar increase in epidemics in our neighbors (Italy, Germany, etc.). Some countries have already passed this wave (Portugal, South Africa) and had a case count as low as half the Omicron wave at its peak, but with a close number of hospitalizations.”
For its part, the governmentdon’t talk about waves” at this point, butstay extremely vigilant” spokesperson Olivia Grégoire said on Tuesday, “A notification to the Council of Ministers on 22 June” On the measures that the executive plans to continue after the end of the state of emergency exit regime scheduled for 31 July.