Is a way out of conflict possible?

War in Ukraine: is a way out of the conflict possible?

UKRAINE. After five months of war, Ukraine and Russia evoke the idea of ​​ending the conflict. However, the positions of each to put an end to this are very different.

Russia is not easing the pressure on Ukraine. And he believes that the latter single-handedly put an end to the fierce war. In any case, that’s what Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. For the Kremlin, the conflict will end only if the neighboring country lays down its arms. But capitulation doesn’t seem like an option for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. Despite repeated attacks by the Russian army and the loss of control of part of the region, Ukraine does not intend to surrender.

And that is, even five months after the start of the Russian offensive in the neighboring country, the fighting continues bloody. Because if the epicenter of the conflict is in eastern Ukraine (read below), “surprise” attacks are being carried out by Russia, as on Monday, June 27, 200 km west of the main battlefield, in Kremenchuk in central Ukraine. A shopping mall was bombed, at least 18 people were killed. Russia, on the other hand, defended itself by claiming it had targeted a firearms warehouse, according to a version from the Kremlin, the explosions later caused the shopping center to catch fire. In the face of these attacks, Ukraine does not want to lower its flag. The end of the war is not on the agenda.

Ukraine-Russia war: conflict map

It is undeniable that Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine. In the south, he took control of the entire coast along the Sea of ​​Azov and part of the Black Sea. In the east, the border area between the two countries, Vladimir Putin’s army expanded its control, already controlling some of it. Ukraine laid down arms to Sieverodonetsk after weeks of conflict. Russia continues to advance and is now targeting Lysychansk and its environs, which Ukrainian soldiers are still trying to defend. Another current Russian target: Kharkiv and its region. In the south of the country, the situation is frozen for now, and Ukraine cannot pull Russia back.

Despite the bombing of Kremenchouk on the banks of the Dnieper, west of Kharkiv and south of Kiev, most of the fighting took place in the south and east, the rest of the country mostly in Kyiv (even if the capital was the target of a weekend strike, Odessa, Zaporijgia or Dnipro.

While the positions seem almost stable, what future for conflict? Can the war between Ukraine and Russia end? Yes, depending on which country launched the attack. Condition: Surrender of his neighbor, as announced by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday, June 28: “The Ukrainian side may come to an end [au conflit] all day long. Nationalist troops must be ordered to lay down their arms, Ukrainian soldiers must be ordered to lay down their arms, and all the conditions set by Russia must be met. Then in one day everything will be over.” But it is difficult to imagine Volodymyr Zelensky ordering his troops to lay down their weapons.

Especially since the Ukrainian president has called on the G7 member states (Germany, Canada, the USA, France, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom) to “do their best to end this war”. Before the end of the year.” Between military logistical support and the strengthening of international sanctions against Russia, Ukraine expects genuine support from the West to force the Russians to end the conflict.

But international pressure will not be enough. A peace treaty, or at least an armistice, must be signed between Ukraine and Russia. However, if the negotiations had been held in the spring, everything has been stalled since April 22. And each blames the other. It’s hard to imagine the lines moving.

Until the Cold War or until the soldiers run out?

“After the sacrifices, devastation, brutality, human and material losses, Ukraine will not make peace like this. It will be content with a temporary and unstable ceasefire if necessary, but taking into account how much it has suffered,” Jean de Gliniasty, Iris’ research director, said, “France’s former ambassador to Russia.” Jean de Gliniasty explains on Iris’ website, “The Russians will do the same, because it will be necessary to justify the launch of the invasion and the special military operation. Russia will not give back the Donbass and possibly the Black Sea coast. And given the material given to the casualties, the risks and sanctions that no one thought would be lifted in the international Russia, at least at this stage of the war, the logic is, we lost for the loss, we continue.”

Voldoymyr Zelensky spoke on June 27 about “the harshness of winter where it is harder to fight”, saying that the war between Ukraine and Russia should continue, but will reach a stalemate in the coming months. At the end of the year we will enter a situation where positions will be frozen.” According to Jean de Gliniasty, “the situation will end with a cold war that is somewhat difficult at best, even a hot borderline; At worst, we will continue to witness military operations until one of the two enemies is exhausted.”

What will be the outcome of the war between Ukraine and Russia?

In the four-month war, the human cost of the conflict is particularly heavy. According to the United Nations, which tries to make a daily assessment, the latest assessment on Sunday, June 26, 2022, shows: 4,731 civilians have been killed since the beginning of the conflictIncluding 4401 adults and 330 children. A balance sheet that includes only civilian casualties and not military casualties. However, the UN believes that “actual figures are quite high, as reports from some areas of intense fighting have been delayed and many reports are still waiting to be ratified”. On the military side, official figures were not disclosed. RFI Ukraine reported that between 15 and 20,000 Russian soldiers had been killed since the beginning of the conflict, while losing a hundred men, or ten thousand, a day.