Is Macron approaching an absolute majority? most recent impressions

2022 legislative poll: Is Macron approaching an absolute majority?  most recent impressions

LEGAL SURVEY. As the second round of the 2022 legislative elections approaches, a recent poll provides some strong elements. If the Macron camp hopes to gain an absolute majority, Nupes remains in ambush. Here are the latest trends…

[Mis à jour le 16 juin 2022 à 19h01] A new OpinionWay poll released Thursday, June 16 for Les Echos and Radio Classique, just days before the second round of the 2022 legislative election, gives a “slight advantage to the presidential majority” in duels against New Popular, Ecological Party candidates. Social Unity, according to Bruno Jeanbart, vice president of the polling institute. Indeed, out of 264 majority/Nupes clashes, Emmanuel Macron’s camp would get 51% of the vote. “The advantage is not huge, but it confirms that there are a few more vote reserves for the majority in these constituencies,” the pollster explains.

Bruno Jeanbart, on the other hand, says the survey showed it was “not dynamic on one side or the other.” “The balance of power looks pretty stable compared to the first lap, with a slight advantage for the majority,” he adds. Uncertainty exists a few days before the second round of legislative elections. Coalition Together! (LREM, Modem, and Horizons) aim for an absolute majority (289 seats in the National Assembly), which could win between 275 and 305 seats, according to OpinionWay. Nupes, on the other hand, has 165 to 210 seats. What does he think of his hopes of gaining a majority in a half-cycle? For other parties, LR can save on furniture with 60 to 75 seats with the help of UDI. For the first time since 1986, the RN was able to secure a group in the Assembly as it had 20 to 40 seats.

Another poll conducted by Odoxa Backbone Consulting for Le Figaro and published on Thursday, June 16, is a little more pessimistic about President Emmanuel Macron’s camp. It could get between 252 and 292 deputies. Therefore, only the most viable hypothesis could allow the Macron camp to cross the threshold of 289 seats, which means an absolute majority in the Assembly. According to projections released Thursday by Le Figaro, the camp led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon could win between. 179 and 225 seats. Let’s not forget that the polls are not an exact estimate of votes.

After the results of the first round of the parliamentary elections, pollsters agree that the candidates are together! The parliament can get its majority on Sunday evening, June 19th. But none put the number of seats definitively above the 289 level. With so many or more deputies, Emmanuel Macron secures an absolute majority, but with fewer elected representatives, the majority will complicate the country’s relative administration.

The latest estimates for Les Echos and Radio Classique from the OpinionWay institute, released Thursday, June 16, estimate the number of winnable seats for Together between 275 and 305! (LREM, MoDem, Horizon, Act). Nupes would later get the most seats in the Bourbon Palace, with 165 to 210 seats. A beautiful performance that would be insufficient to impose coexistence on the President. Despite a sharp decline, the Republicans would hold between 60 and 75 of their seats and would be the second opposition force ever to be their first. Finally, the National Rally succeeded in forming a parliamentary group of 20 to 40 deputies.

Please note: Estimates generated on the evening of the first round of parliamentary elections are not the results of polls. The institutes that developed them for television channels are based on actual results from several hundred polling stations spread throughout France, representing the diversity of constituencies. With this initial data, the mathematical models will become available to give the possible range of seats for each political bloc. First of all, algorithms that deal with predicting vote reports in 577 constituencies.

What did the latest polling intentions say about round 1 of the 2022 legislative election?

Latest survey from Ifop institute LCI, He gave the Nupes (26.5%) released Friday, June 10th, right in front of the Ensemble! (26%), RN garnered 19% of voting intentions, well ahead of LR (10%) and Reconquest (5.5%). A similar result to the latest Harris Interactive and Toluna barometer (June 8-10) for the challenges and Ipsos-Sopra-Steria polls for France Télévisions, Radio France and Le Monde put the two lineups evenly or nearly ahead. maximum RN 20%. The match between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon was therefore announced, and the pollsters made no mistake.

Various surveys published in recent weeks Together! and Nupes at the beginning of voting intentions ahead of the National Rally, this trend in the polls continued throughout nearly the entire campaign. The movement led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the alliance formed around Emmanuel Macron has received between 25 and 28% of the vote in a pocket handkerchief in recent weeks, which is counterbalanced in the first round.

It’s hard to produce reliable polls for legislative elections

Please note: votes cast for legislative elections are very different from those cast for presidential elections. Other components structure this voting: the weight of the parties established in the territory, the locally admired political figures, the political rapprochement at the electoral level, and the two-round majority voting method. All this complicates the job of interviewers. However, if it is not possible to make precise predictions, some elements need to be taken into account in order to measure the balance of power.

In 577 constituencies in mainland France and overseas (excluding constituencies for French citizens living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came first out of 256 in the first round of the presidential election. Marine Le Pen is in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon is 104, Valérie Pécresse is in… absent. But note that in 2017 Marine Le Pen managed to run the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; The far-right party was able to elect only 9 deputies.