Is the end of the conflict possible?

War in Ukraine: is the end of the conflict possible?

UKRAINE. Is it possible for this conflict to end when war was declared by Russia in Ukraine five months ago? The result is not visible for now.

[Mise à jour le 27 juin 2022 à 23h14] Unfortunately, the end of the war in Ukraine does not appear for tomorrow. This violent event that occurred on Monday, June 27, 2022, proves it. Indeed, a missile struck a “very busy” shopping center in the city of Kremenchuk, located in central Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Facebook post, “The occupiers fired a missile at a shopping mall with more than a thousand civilians.” He also condemned a “shameless act of terrorism”. According to the regional governor, a fire broke out in the Kremenchuk shopping center since then. At least 13 dead and more than 50 injured were reported in the last report, which was stated by the governor at around 10 PM. Quai d’Orsay said, “Russia will have to answer for these actions. France supports the fight against impunity in Ukraine.”

Support Ukraine “as much as necessary”. This is the commitment made by the G7 (group of Germany, Canada, the United States, France, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom) on Monday, June 27. The leaders of the seven largest countries in the world, who came together at a summit in Germany, renewed their unwavering support for Ukraine after exchanging views via videoconference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Support to end the conflict? This is what the Ukrainian president hopes for as Russia continues its attacks, mainly in the east of the country.

After losing control of the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov and most of those with a coast to the Black Sea, Ukraine is losing territory in the border areas with the neighboring country, which now occupies a large part of the Donbass, and Ukrainian weapons will be entrusted to Sievierodonetsk, the last flagship of Vladimir Putin’s men . The latter is not afraid to send messages of fear to the West: on Sunday, Kyiv was hit by several missiles in a residential area, the Kremlin boss also announced the next delivery of missiles, which could carry to Belarus. nuclear warheads. Global sanctions against Russia do not seem to thwart Vladimir Putin’s ambitions. How far will the ascension go? Can the war end?

Ukraine-Russia war: conflict map

More than four months after the start of the war in Ukraine and the conquest of most of the country (see map), Russia is working to extend its control to the east of the country. After Ukrainians were asked to lower their flag in Sievierodonetsk, the Russians aimed to take the neighboring town of Lyssytchansk and try to “gain momentum on the northern axis of Izium,” according to the British Defense Ministry in its daily newspaper this Monday. Update. Kharkiv is also one of the current main destinations. For Russia, therefore, it is a matter of continuing the attempt to conquer this border area after taking control of southern Ukraine along the Sea of ​​Azov and after landing, thereby bringing Mariupol into its bosom. The tip of the Dnieper is also in the hands of Vladimir Putin’s men, with a symbol: the war in Kherson. Odessa is no longer the stage of war at this stage, even if its strategic port has stopped. The cities of Zaporizhia or Dnipro are no longer the target of the Russian army, which concentrates its efforts in the east.

The colored part corresponds to the area controlled by the Russian forces.
The colored part corresponds to the area controlled by the Russian forces. © Ministry of the Armed Forces

For four months, the war has returned to the gates of Europe. Russia attacked Ukraine to “seaize” the country, in the words of Vladimir Putin. An offensive to which the Ukrainians responded ruthlessly despite their territorial losses (read above). With the conflict raging for weeks, is it possible to imagine the end of what seems like a real bombardment of the country? On Monday, June 27, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky urged members of the G7 to “do whatever they can to end this war before the end of the year.”

The problem is negotiations are at a standstill. There has been no meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian leaders since April 22. The first meetings held throughout March did not lead to the end of the war, but only to the slowing of the offensive against Kiev. At this stage, the negotiations are closed and both sides accuse each other of bringing the negotiations to an end. Re-activating an exchange channel will not be easy, which will lead to a lesser peace settlement.

Until the Cold War or until the soldiers run out?

“After the sacrifices, devastation, brutality, human and material losses, Ukraine will not make peace like this. It will be content with a temporary and unstable ceasefire if necessary, but taking into account how much it has suffered,” Jean de Gliniasty, Iris’ research director, said, “France’s former ambassador to Russia.” Jean de Gliniasty explains on Iris’ website, “The Russians will do the same, because it will be necessary to justify the launch of the invasion and the special military operation. Russia will not give back the Donbass and possibly the Black Sea coast. And given the material given to the casualties, the risks and sanctions that no one thought would be lifted in the international Russia, at least at this stage of the war, the logic is, we lost for the loss, we continue.”

Voldoymyr Zelensky spoke on June 27 about “the harshness of winter where it is harder to fight”, saying that the war between Ukraine and Russia should continue, but will reach a stalemate in the coming months. At the end of the year we will enter a situation where positions will be frozen.” According to Jean de Gliniasty, “the situation will end with a cold war that is somewhat difficult at best, even a hot borderline; At worst, we will continue to witness military operations until one of the two enemies is exhausted.”

What will be the outcome of the war between Ukraine and Russia?

In the four-month war, the human toll of the conflict is particularly heavy. According to the United Nations, which tries to make a daily assessment, 4,677 civilians have been killed since the beginning of the conflictIncluding 4356 adults and 321 children. A balance sheet that includes only civilian casualties and not military casualties. However, the UN believes that “actual figures are quite high, as reports from some areas of intense fighting have been delayed and many reports are still waiting to be ratified”. On the military side, official figures were not disclosed. RFI Ukraine reported that between 15 and 20,000 Russian soldiers had been killed since the beginning of the conflict, while losing a hundred men, or ten thousand, a day.