Legislature 2022. Can the Left reconquer Aquitaine?

The question arises the day after these first legislative elections in Aquitaine. In this historically socialist district, the few constituencies that voted for a presidential majority in 2017 may fall back on the left hand of the NUPES version.

In 2017, the LREM wave brought 24 Macronist Aquitaine deputies to the Assembly. Five years from now, will we witness a return to fundamentals in a region traditionally anchored to the left?

Left-wing candidates, mostly from Nupes, qualified for the runoff in 23 of Aquitaine’s 28 constituencies. And they find themselves in a positive tie in ten constituencies.

In the Dordogne, socialist department, four constituencies elected a LaREM to Parliament in 2017. This Sunday, three candidates from Nupes qualified for the second round. Only the 2nd constituency of Bergerac chose a duel between Serge Muller’s RN and former Renaissance MP Michel Delpon.
In the division’s other three constituencies, the left comes first. It may even benefit from a voting report in some places. Indeed, socialist candidates all over the department had nominated an opposition candidate.

Thus, Pascale Martin, the candidate of the Dordogne’s first constituency, LFI Nupes Opponent may consider taking advantage of 4,360 games taken by Floran Vadillo in the second round. “No sound should go to the right”, said the latter, questioned by France 3 Périgords this Monday.

I’ve said throughout the campaign: My opponent will never be on the left. To the right of Emmanuel Macron, to the right of Elizabeth Marty and, frankly, to the far right.

Floran Vadillo loses in constituency 1 of opposition PS candidate Dordogne

Source: France 3 Perigords

In the third constituency, Insoumis Nupes Cyril Girardeau, candidate Together! Jean-Pierre Cubertafond and RN candidate Florence Joubert should be looking, too. 9.6% obtained by PS opponent Martial Peyrouny.

on his side, Sarladais’ PS opponent Christian Teillac Sébastien Peytavie, who received 13.6 percent of the vote, announced that he did not call for votes for the Nupes candidate Sébastien Peytavie, who will face the outgoing deputy Jacqueline Dubois on 12 June.

“When Sébastien Peytavie was asked before the first round whether he would withdraw in favor of Christian Teillac (…) he replied that he would not order to vote in my favour. So, neither do I, nor do I. vote in favor‘, answered Christian Teillac on the microphone of France 3 Périgords.

See opposition PS candidate Christian Teillac’s reaction for the 4th district of the Dordogne.

video length: 01min 34

See opposition PS candidate Christian Teillac’s reaction for the 4th district of the Dordogne.

©France 3 Perigords

Can we imagine then that some of Germinal Peyro’s voters are turning left again? Not impossible, according to political scientist Ludovic Renard. Dordogne, along with Lot-et-Garonne, is one of the departments that won the big slam for Macron in 2017. he analyzes. An appointment has been made to sanction government representatives.”.

If the very good result of Insoumis – Nupes Loïc Prud’homme – around 45% of the vote and his rival Ensemble!, ahead of Fabien Robert by about 7,000 votes – is to be highlighted in Gironde’s 3rd constituency (Bègles, Talence), Villenave d’ Ornon), Nicolas Thierry also showed himself in the 2nd district of the Gironde.
The candidate EELV – Nupes, who is also a regional councilor, received 45.12% of the vote, well ahead of the outgoing MP, whose presidential majority was invested by Catherine Fabre.
Second, he could see his mission slipping from his grasp this Sunday. In the constituency, turnout was 52.9%. According to Ludovic Renard, it’s a catchphrase that goes well with voters.

This is a constituency where Michèle Delaunay (PS) dismissed Alain Juppé (UMP). His voters know how to take action to get heads rolling.

Ludovic Renard, political scientist Sciences PO Bordeaux

Source: France 3 Aquitaine

constituency, which includes the counties of La Bastide, Saint-Michel, Saint Augustin and Saint-Seurin, has welcomed nearly 3,000 new residents over the past six years.
In some neighborhoods, the face of the population is changing. “This constituency is representative of the new urban bourgeoisies greening themselves.”Ludovic believes Renard, but “good campaign“, by Nicolas Thierry.

In Landes, Nupes run in all constituencies.

In the third constituency, the outgoing PS – Nupes MP Boris Vallaud finds himself in a very positive vote against ex-socialist Jean-François Broquères, a macronist.

In the second region of the division, around Dax, the bets are open. Officer Together! Leader Lionel Causse is 3.5 points ahead of Tarnos and Nupes’ communist mayoral candidate Jean-Marc Lespades. But here, too, the problem of the transfer of votes arises.

Campaigning in the Soustons market the day after the first round, Jean-Marc Lespades wants to believe in a new dynamic. “The outgoing agent suffered a bitter regression, regressed by more than 10 points, he rejoices. The nominee urges the abstentions – more than 47% of whom did not come to vote on June 12 – to mobilize for Nupes’ victory. “We are very enthusiastic, very active and playing to win next Sunday.”he assures.

One thing is certain, he is a left-wing MP who will win the 3rd constituency of Pyrénées-Atlantiques. The duel will be played between the outgoing parliamentarian, opposition socialist David Habib, and the Nupes candidate Insoumise Jean-François Baby from the ranks of France.

But change can also happen in Basque constituencies. MPs are leaving together! Sure, they’re ahead, but we find the Nupes candidates in the second round. Their fate will also depend on whether the votes of the left abertzale Eh Bai candidates are delayed.Some, like Peio Dufau in the 6th constituency, have a solid electoral base.