Macron or Le Pen, what do the numbers say?

2nd round presidential poll: Macron or Le Pen, what do the numbers say?

PRESIDENTIAL SURVEY. Emmanuel Macron faces Marine Le Pen: this will be the poster for the second round of the 2022 presidential election on April 24. The first polls pitting them against each other were published. Here are all the trends.

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[Mis à jour le 11 avril 2022 à 08h37] This is why the duel announced by the ballot boxes in recent weeks will take place. Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron will face each other in the second round of the presidential election on Sunday, April 24. At the end of the first round, which was discussed on Sunday, April 10, the first polls and predictions for this second round duel were published. Ispos Sopra Steria published a poll for France Télévisions, placing Emmanuel Macron in the lead in the second round with an intention of voting 54 percent and Marine Le Pen 46 percent.

Other polls proclaim a tighter vote with an uncertain result. One of them, produced by Elabe for BFM TV and broadcast on Sunday evening, also won Emmanuel Macron, but by a much smaller margin: 52% versus 48% for the RN candidate. Polls published before the first round also make it possible to identify initial trends in the second round of the presidential election, which will be held on April 24. The polls have indeed published many polls, pitting different candidates against each other for the runoff. Given the dynamics displayed throughout the campaign, the Macron-Le Pen duel has been tested multiple times with voter panels.

Therefore, we know about the runoff duel of the 2022 presidential election. What do the polls say about this revenge between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, five years after the same runoff in 2017? Two voting waves can be used to gain a more global view of voting intentions. The first element: Even before the first round of the 2022 presidential election was held, polls were published in case of a runoff in the presidential election between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. All polls before the first round on Sunday, April 10, won Emmanuel Macron. However, the gap narrowed as the first round approached, leaving doubts about the outcome of the next 24 April vote. These pre-first round surveys are gradually being supplemented by new studies carried out on the evening of the first round on Sunday, April 10, and after the first estimates and results were announced.

What does the Sodoxa poll give in round 2 between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen? Results

A Sodoxa poll released Sunday evening certainly places Emmanuel Macron there with 54.5% intent to vote, but for outgoing president Marine Le Pen, he can only convince 41% of voters against 34%, 25% of them on the ballot. shows their ambiguity, possibly gives. blank or blank vote priority. Sodoxa also draws on the sociology of the respective constituencies of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron: popular categories and 25-34-year-olds position themselves more for Marine Le Pen, while the wealthiest French and 65-over-50s gravitate towards Emmanuel Macron. %.

What do the Ifop poll numbers say about the runoff between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron?

What does the Ifop poll for TFI-LCI say after the first round of the presidential election on Sunday evening, April 10? This poll of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, the two candidates who qualified for the runoff, places the outgoing president in the lead by a narrow margin: 51% against 49% intent to vote for Marine Le Pen. First of all, the institute determines the voting intentions of voters who did not vote for two candidates in the first round, a way to get an initial vision of possible vote transfers for the runoff. Thus, the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the third man in this presidential election, are very divided: 33% voted for Emmanuel Macron, 23% voted for Marine Le Pen, and 44% voted blank, zero or abstaining. prefers.

Valérie Pécresse voters also seem divided: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen would receive 35% of their voting intentions if 30% did not position themselves. Not surprisingly, Eric Zemmour’s voters lean heavily on Marine Le Pen with 76% of their intentions to vote against just 4% for Marine Le Pen. Voters for EELV candidate Yannick Jadot closest to Emmanuel Macron. According to this Ifop poll conducted on the evening of Sunday, April 10, they position themselves 56% to vote for the LREM candidate versus 6% for Marine Le Pen. 38% prefer a blank, void or abstention vote.