Surveys and results published before 8 PM?

La Libre Belgique, Le Soir: Surveys and results published before 8 PM?

Polls and even forecasts for the outcome of the 2022 presidential election in France were published in Belgian media such as La Libre Belgique or Le Soir before 8pm. These estimates are currently unverifiable.

[Mis à jour le 10 avril 2022 à 18h34] At 6 pm on Sunday, April 10, 2022, La Libre Belgique has already released the first estimates of the vote before all the polls close. On its Twitter account, the Belgian newspaper is conducting its first “6:00 p.m. poll” revealing what will be the final duel of this presidential election, as well as the first numbers produced for the five leading candidates. Le Soir shared the same “exit poll.” However, these results have not been officially announced by the Ministry of Interior and cannot be confirmed at this time., like the rest of the French media, will not publish these results of the first round of the presidential election before 8 PM. Indeed, any person who prematurely disseminates election information, media or not, will be fined €75,000; this can be multiplied by the number of published information or publications on voting results. However, Belgian media such as La Libre Belgique and Le Soir are not subject to these sanctions.

If Le Soir or La Libre Belgique have information on the results of the first round of the 2022 presidential election, they simply put this information online out of respect for an ethical line they have put on their conscience. During the previous French presidential election, Le Soir warned before the results on the day of the first round: “If the law prohibits the French media from broadcasting the slightest trend before 8 pm, that’s not the case with us. So we should be able to broadcast the first predictions before 8 pm Exactly what When the information was cross-checked, reliable and serious, quite simply, “justified the media.

What is sure and certain is that it is very easy to follow the results of this first round of the presidential election on Linternaute: our editorial team is mobilized to give you all the necessary information live on this very special day. , with reactions, comments. From politicians, current events, updated turnout figures and candidate results, the law allows us to reveal early trends. To follow this election, go to our big live stream dedicated to the 2022 presidential election.

Message from Le Soir, published this Sunday morning, explains the color

Le Soir also recalls on Sunday, April 10, in an article posted on its website. “Actually, if the law prohibits the French media from broadcasting the slightest stream before 8:00 pm, this ban does not apply to Belgium. Therefore, we will be able to publish information at the exit of the ballot box,” the newspaper previously assured on this platform. but by stating: “When exactly? When will the information be cross-checked, reliable and serious, it’s pretty simple. For Le Soir it’s not a matter of being first at all costs, it’s a matter of being relevant, taking into account the fact that the gap between candidates can be tight and the polls may close at 7 PM (or 8 PM in major cities). Le Soir will obviously be mobilized for the event, but will be journalistically cautious.”

But the Election Commission insisted that data on the presidential election, which could be released in the afternoon, would have no basis: “Given the difference between the closing hours of the first and last polls since 2017, which has been reduced to one hour (7:00 am to 8:00 pm),” A reliable estimate of the results from the initial counts of “test offices” is unlikely to be made before 7:45 pm at the earliest. The presidential election, which will circulate before 8:00 pm, requires candidates to be considered devoid of substantial control and that no information that may be circulated on the Internet and social networks should be considered by the Survey Commission. “They will constitute misinformation and even manipulation of public opinion,” warns the commission.

No exit survey? Towards new questions five years after initial discussion

However, the polling commission took the lead and tightened the screw so that Belgian sites did not have access to the results of the first round of the 2012 presidential election, and therefore sought a firm commitment from the French polling institutions. “The Voting Commission has received assurances that none of the 8 main polling organizations (BVA, Elabe, Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos, Kantar, Odoxa, OpinionWay,) will go to the polls on April 10.” This means that any reference to such polls on election day It simply means that they can be the result of rumors or manipulation and therefore should not be trusted.”

In France, the electoral law prohibits all press companies, as well as everyone, including social networks, from disseminating information about the results of the elections and the closing of the ballot boxes before 20:00, so as not to influence the votes and influence the voters. For the Belgian media, which has not yet gone to the polls, therefore, the opportunity to release exclusive information on Sunday, April 10, is huge, especially as it is eagerly awaited in France.

What is the source of the leak?

But for this they need to have concrete, tangible and reliable elements of the results of the first round of the presidential election. And that can only come from a polling institute that will conduct “exit polls” at noon today. And because French survey institutes are prohibited from making such data public, the information is also hidden. However, in the last elections, despite the instructions of the polling commission and the significant legal risks for polling institutions, it is clear that the Belgian media had classified information.