Jurgen Klopp thinks Liverpool’s chances of a treble win are ‘really unlikely’ – but is he right? We run the numbers to evaluate the true probability.
Klopp’s side, which has already won the Carabao Cup, is just one point behind leaders Man City as they enter their final seven games of the season, entering an impressive league undefeated streak that evaporated the champions’ seemingly insurmountable 14-point lead on January 15. .
Liverpool will face Manchester United in a live match next Tuesday. sky sports From 19h.
Meanwhile, Liverpool will face Villarreal in the Champions League semi-finals, which will take place in the first leg at Anfield on 27 April and before the second leg at El Madrigal on 3 May.
In total, Liverpool will face a grueling nine-game schedule in April, followed by seven more, including the FA Cup final if they qualify for the Champions League final in May.
At the start of the season, Liverpool had a 0.02% chance of achieving an unimaginable success and winning the Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and Carabao Cup.
To put this in context, statistically there is a better chance that Gary Neville will become the next leader of the Conservative Party or that Romelu Lukaku win the Ballon D’Or this year than Liverpool’s treble at the start of the season.
This is a probability equivalent to 3,000/1 when converted to fractional odds with Sky Bet. Now and after Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final win, Liverpool have a 12.5 percent chance of finishing the season with all four trophies in their cabinet, which equates to odds of 7/1.
Klopp’s “really unlikely” description of the challenge ahead understandably underestimates something that was actually very achievable. Liverpool fans have every right to be excited, especially the two Sky Bet bookies who backed Klopp’s men to lift four trophies at massive odds in August.
“Two customers who bet £30 each at 2,000/1 will undoubtedly hit every ball next month,” he explains. Sky Bet’Sports Public Relations Manager Michael Shinners.
How Sky Bet quadruple odds crashed…
- Season start August: 3000/1
- September: 1000/1
- February: 100/1 before victory in the Carabao Cup final
- March: after 33/1 Carabao Cup victory
- April: 14/1 after 2-2 draw at Etihad
- Now: 01/07
“The Quads have one leg already under their belts and with a second final confirmed, Liverpool fans will be very excited post-ante. Current odds over the last three trophies won are now just 7/1.”
Chance to win the Premier League = 35%*
Of the remaining three competitions, Liverpool’s chances of winning the Premier League are the least likely.
This is where the quad bidding is most likely to drop.
The 2-2 draw between the Reds and Manchester City staggered the Premier League title race – but Pep Guardiola’s men are still favourites. With a record of 12/1 in mid-January, Liverpool are only 7/4 away from winning a second title in three seasons with Sky Bet, which is about a 35 percent chance.
When analyzing their remaining fixtures, Liverpool with a 50% or more chance of winning three points will be seen as favorites to win any match, except for an injury attack or serious team loss. Their toughest fixtures on paper are their away trips to Aston Villa and in-form Newcastle, but even then Klopp’s men would have had a good chance of winning those games by three points.
Liverpool’s last matches in the Premier League
- Manchester United (H) live on Sky Sports Tuesday 19 April
- Everton (H) live on Sky Sports Sunday, April 24
- Newcastle (A), Saturday 30 April
- Tottenham (H), Saturday 7 May
- Aston Villa (A) live on Sky Sports Tuesday, May 10
- Southampton (A) live on Sky Sports Sunday, May 15
- Wolves (H), Sunday, May 22
According to Sky Bet odds, there is a 14 percent chance for Liverpool to win their remaining seven Premier League games and finish with 94 points. So this would have led to a scenario where Klopp’s men had 52 points from the last 54 available games of the season and a draw at Manchester City, their only points down in their last 18 league games. No other team in Premier League history would have scored more points in their last 18 games if they had won every game.
The thing is, of the remaining teams in Man City, only West Ham and Wolves are currently in the top eight.
There’s also a Steven Gerrard factor to consider. While Liverpool’s former captain has never won the Premier League on his own, he can have a say in this title race.
The Reds face this match on 10 May at their former captain, now Aston Villa manager Villa Park, while City end the season at home on 22 May.
A titanic fight awaits you.
Chance to win the FA Cup = 66%*
With a single game separating them from the trophy, Liverpool’s chances of lifting the FA Cup are the most likely of the three trophies on the table, despite Klopp never winning that domestic trophy.
The Reds will aim to win their first FA Cup since 2006, when they face Chelsea on 14 May.
Klopp’s side put on a spectacular halftime show to thank Manchester City in the semi-finals that paved the way for a 3-2 win at Wembley. . final. It was a very tight event that required penalties to separate the teams.
Still, Liverpool head to this last favorite to lift the trophy in pursuit of history.
Chances of winning the Champions League = 44%*
According to the odds, Liverpool has a higher chance of winning the Champions League than the Premier League.
Villarreal awaits them in the semi-finals where they are big favorites to advance, but Unai Emery’s side showed their tenacity in this competition, which has already beaten Juventus and Bayern Munich.
Champions League schedule
- Man City – Real Madrid, Tuesday, April 26
- Liverpool v Villarreal, Wednesday 27 April
- Villarreal v Liverpool, Tuesday 3 May
- Real Madrid-Man City, Wednesday, May 4
- Champions League final, Saturday 28 May
If they reach their second consecutive finals, Man City could be waiting for them if they draw with Real Madrid. That could mark a fateful date in Paris on 28 May, when Liverpool could be one game away from the treble.
They couldn’t, did they?
*Probability calculated using percentage adjusted figures, which eliminates Sky Bet’s market margin.
Liverpool’s 11 matches for victory…
April 19 – Manchester United (H) premier leagueLive stream on Sky Sports
April 24 – Everton (M) premier leagueLive stream on Sky Sports
April 27 – Villareal (H) Champions League SF first leg
30. April – Newcastle (A) premier league
May 3 – Villareal (A) SF Champions League second leg
May 7 – Tottenham (H) premier league
10 May – Villa Aston (A) premier leagueLive stream on Sky Sports
14 May – against Chelsea in the FA Cup final
May 15 – Southampton (A) premier league
22 May – wolves (H) premier league
May 28 – Champions League Final *
* Subject to progress